Win Rate Calculator: Your Record vs Break-Even
Count your own wins and losses, add the payout your game shows, and the tool does the rest: your win rate, the rate you needed to break even, how much room for doubt your record leaves, and the exact chance it was luck.
At the time of writing (8 October 2026), BDG Win’s home page shows a winning information feed and a “Today’s earnings chart”. Both show masked member names beside amounts, and we neither check nor quote those amounts. A win rate needs the number of losses as well as wins, and a list of winners does not give it. Take 1,000 people who each play 100 rounds and win exactly as often as break-even needs: about 200 of them win 56 or more, so a list made of the best records is never short of names. This tool works on a record you keep yourself.
It opens on a made-up record: 56 wins and 44 losses, paid at 1.95×, with no fee.
The rate a payout needs
The break-even win rate is the line a record has to clear: the portion of rounds you have to win so that what comes back equals what went in. Work it out as 1 divided by the payout after any fee. Win more often than that and the average result is a gain; win less often and it is a loss.
| Payout | Win rate needed | Wins to break even, out of 100 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9× | 52.63% | 53 |
| 1.95× | 51.28% | 52 |
| 2× | 50.00% | 50 |
| 3× | 33.33% | 34 |
| 5× | 20.00% | 20 |
| 10× | 10.00% | 10 |
56 wins in 100 rounds, worked through
At 1.95× the line is 51.28%. That needs 52 wins in 100 rounds, and your 56 make 56.0%, which is 4.7 points over it. Could chance alone have done that?
Suppose the game’s real win rate sat at exactly 51.28%. Then 36.9% of 100-round records would land at least this far from it, in either direction, and 20.0% would show 56 wins or more. Working backwards from your record, the real rate could be anywhere from 46.2% to 65.3%, a range that takes in the break-even line. In money, every ₹100 staked would come back as anything from ₹90.14 to ₹127.39, which straddles ₹100. Press Run pretend players: about 1 in 5 of them, all playing at exactly break-even, match or beat 56 wins.
The same 56%, five lengths
Only the number of rounds changes below.
| Rounds | Wins | Range the true rate could be in | Chance luck alone is this far off |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 28 | 42.3% to 68.8% | 57.2% |
| 100 | 56 | 46.2% to 65.3% | 36.9% |
| 250 | 140 | 49.8% to 62.0% | 14.6% |
| 500 | 280 | 51.6% to 60.3% | 3.55% |
| 1,000 | 560 | 52.9% to 59.0% | 0.293% |
By 500 rounds the range sits above break-even, and chance alone produces a record this far off only 3.55% of the time. To catch a true gap of 4.7 points four times in five takes about 878 rounds, and a gap of 1 point takes about 19,601. A record counts as evidence only when it is long and complete.
A long record below the line
The same test can point the other way. Take 1,200 wins in 2,500 rounds at 1.95×. That is 48.0%, and 1,283 wins were needed to break even. The real rate is likely between 46.0% and 50.0%, wholly under the line, and chance alone lands this far off only 0.103% of the time. That rate returns an average of ₹93.60 for every ₹100 staked. A long, complete record is how an average loss shows up in your own rounds.
Keeping a record worth testing
- Start counting before you play, not after a good run.
- Count every round in one stretch, wins and losses together.
- Type the payout that includes your stake (2× is even money), and any fee.
- Keep counting when you are ahead. A record that stops at a peak is a different record.
Where the tool stops
The tool cannot look into how a game is run, so it cannot tell you whether a stated chance is true, and it cannot forecast the next round: every round is drawn fresh, and a strong or weak record does not move it. It treats each round as having one fixed chance, with no round leaning on another. Its 5% cut-off is a convention that rules nothing in or out.
To test a prediction channel’s record instead of your own, use the prediction simulator. The Aviator odds tool shows what a stated return means for how often a cash-out multiple is reached, the Martingale calculator what raising bets after losses does to a record, and the loss calculator prices a long session. The games guide explains why a list of winners is not a list of odds, and the other free tools are one page away.
Common questions
How many wins in 100 rounds do I need to break even at 1.95×?
52. The line is 1 ÷ 1.95, which is 51.28%. Fifty-two wins return 101.4 stakes against 100 staked, and 51 wins return only 99.45, so 51 falls just short. A fee on each stake raises the number.
Is a 60% win rate over 50 rounds good?
It is above the 51.28% line, but 50 rounds are too few to say. Luck alone gives a record at least this far from break-even 25.8% of the time, about 1 in 4. The true rate could be anywhere from 46.2% to 72.4%.
How long should I keep a record before it means anything?
The gap you want to spot decides it. A true rate 5 points above break-even takes about 781 rounds to tell from luck, and 2 points above takes about 4,897. A record of a few hundred rounds can show only big gaps.
Why is the range so wide after 100 rounds?
Because 100 rounds is a small sample. For 56 wins it runs from 46.2% to 65.3%, which is 19 points wide. Ten times the rounds at the same 56% narrows it to 52.9% to 59.0%.
Do I type the payout with my stake counted in?
Yes. 2 means even money: a win returns the stake plus an equal amount. If your screen shows only the profit, add 1. Use the payout for the bet you actually place, because a bet that pays more needs a lower win rate.
What if my game takes a fee from each stake?
Type it in the fee box. A 2% fee at a 2× payout lifts the line from 50.00% to 51.02%, so 100 rounds then need 52 wins instead of 50. A fee acts like a smaller payout.